2007 Duck Trend Report

[Rick Frisch]

Guys,

Below is part of the 2007 Duck Trend Report from the US Fish and Wildlife service. I am sure the full report will be on thier site shortly. Looks pretty promising for this fall.

TRENDS IN DUCK BREEDING POPULATIONS, 1955-2007
Khristi A. Wilkins, Mark C. Otto, Guthrie S. Zimmerman, Emily D. Silverman, and Mark
D. Koneff
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Division of Migratory Bird Management
11510 American Holly Drive
Laurel, MD 20708-4002
Administrative Report – July 11, 2007

This report summarizes information about the status of duck populations and wetland habitats during spring 2007, focusing on areas encompassed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife (USFWS) and Canadian Wildlife Services’ (CWS) Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey. This report does not include information from surveys conducted by State or Provincial agencies.

In the traditional survey area, the total duck population estimate (excluding
scoters, eiders, long-tailed ducks, mergansers, and wood ducks) was 41.2 ± 0.8 [SE] million birds. This was 14% greater than last year’s estimate of 36.2 ± 0.6 million birds and 24% above the 1955-2006 long-term average. Mallard abundance was 8.0 ± 0.3 million birds, which was 10% above last year’s estimate of 7.3 ± 0.2 million birds and 7% above the long-term average. Blue-winged teal abundance was 6.7 ± 0.4 million birds. This value was the third highest estimate since 1955, 14% greater than last year’s estimate of 5.9 ± 0.3 million birds, and 48% above the long-term average. Estimated abundances of gadwall (3.4 ± 0.2 million) and Northern Shovelers
(4.6 ± 0.2 million) were also above those of last year (+19% and +24%,
respectively) and well above their long-term averages (+96% and +106% respectively). Estimated abundance of American wigeon (2.8 ± 0.2 million) was 29% greater than last year but similar to the long-term average. Estimated abundances of green-winged teal (2.9 ± 0.2 million), redheads (1.0 ± 0.08 million), and canvasbacks (0.9 ± 0.09 million) were similar to last year’s, but were each >50% above their long-term averages. Abundances of Northern Shovelers, redheads, and canvasbacks were the highest ever estimated in this survey area, and the populations are considered to have changed from the previous year or long-term average if observed significance value associated with change is ≤ 0.10. Actual p-values are given in tables. Abundance of green-winged teal was the second highest estimated for this region. Estimates for Northern pintails (3.3 ± 0.2 million) and scaup (3.5 ± 0.2 million) were unchanged from those of 2006, and remain below long-term averages (-19% and -33%, respectively).

Overall, habitat conditions for breeding waterfowl in 2007 were similar or slightly improved compared to conditions in 2006. The total pond estimate (Prairie Canada and U.S. combined) was 7.0 ± 0.3 million ponds. This was 15% greater than last year’s estimate of 6.1 ± 0.2 million ponds and 44% higher than the long-term average of 4.9 ± 0.03 million ponds. For the third year in a row, habitat conditions were good or excellent in the northern grasslands and parklands of southern Saskatchewan and southern
Manitoba. Three years of plentiful precipitation has generally maintained or improved the quality of the wetland and upland vegetation in this region. The 2007 estimate of ponds in Prairie Canada was 5.0 ± 0.3 million. This was a 13% increase from last year’s estimate (4.4 ± 0.2 million), 49% above the 1955-2006 average (3.4 ± 0.03 million), and the fourth highest number of Canadian ponds on record (Table 12; Figure 2). However, some areas of the parklands of southern Saskatchewan experienced severe flooding resulting from record amounts of spring runoff and some nests may have flooded. The
southern grasslands of Saskatchewan and Manitoba remained dry, and were in fair to poor condition. Conditions in southern Alberta, which have generally been either fair or poor for much of the last decade, improved for the second consecutive year, largely due to melting of large snow packs and wet soil conditions.

Habitat conditions in U.S. prairies were highly variable, ranging from good to poor. The 2007 pond estimate for the north-central U.S. of 2.0 ± 0.1 million was 19% greater than last year’s estimate (1.6 ± 0.09 million) and 29% above the long-term average (1.5 ± 0.02 million). The drought conditions seen last year in the Eastern Dakotas were improved by abundant fall and winter precipitation, especially in eastern South Dakota. Exceptionally
heavy rain events during May helped to improve conditions in eastern Montana and parts of the Dakotas. Unfortunately, the area affected by this rain did not include the high quality duck habitat of the Missouri Coteau region in the Eastern Dakotas. Although this precipitation occurred after many ducks had moved through the survey area, it probably benefited re-nesting birds and improved vegetation quality in wetlands and uplands,
thereby aiding brood survival.

Habitat in the bush regions of the traditional survey area (Alaska, Northern Manitoba, Northern Saskatchewan, Western Ontario) was mostly classified as good due to a normal spring ice break-up and generally good water conditions in the beaver ponds, river deltas, and small lakes and ponds that are characteristic of this region. Spring phenology and water levels varied slightly in local areas. For example, spring was slightly late in the Old Crow Flats, slightly early in the Yukon Delta, and slightly drier in the Yukon Flats
compared to other regions in Alaska, but habitat conditions were still generally good across the bush region. The exceptions were the somewhat drier conditions in northwest Saskatchewan and central Alberta and the potential for some flooding in northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The boreal forests of the eastern survey area were generally in good or excellent condition this spring, except for a few drier patches in Northern Quebec that were in fair condition. Spring arrived early in the James and Hudson Bay Lowlands for the 3rd consecutive year and habitat conditions were classified as excellent. In eastern and southern Ontario, the winter snow pack was below normal; however, a good frost seal, spring runoff, and spring storms left this region in good condition at the time of the survey. Storms following the survey period produced local flooding of some nesting
habitat. Wetland basins in Quebec were adequately charged and spring temperatures were near normal. There was some potential for flooding of nests in Maine and the Maritimes due to heavy rain during mid-May, but this was not as problematic as it had been during the past few years. Newfoundland and Labrador experienced a late spring compared to the last 5 years, with the northernmost part of the survey region in Labrador still frozen in late May. However, this region was still considered in good condition.
In 2005, the USFWS and CWS began to integrate several previously independent waterfowl surveys of eastern North America. Specifically, new analytical methods were used to generate composite estimates from USFWS and CWS survey data, total indicated bird definitions for American black ducks were modified to provide a common index across the surveys, and adjustments were made to the geographic stratification of eastern
North America. Additional refinements to analytical methods are incorporated in the estimates presented in this report. For these reasons, population estimates presented in this report for the eastern survey area are not directly comparable with estimates presented in reports presented prior to 2006. Specifically, composite estimates are presented for only a portion of the eastern survey area and include data only from strata 51, 52, 63, 64, 66, 67, 68, 70, 71, and 72. These strata were chosen for composite estimation because at least one survey (i.e., that is either the CWS or USFWS survey) was conducted for each of these strata for the full period of record of the eastern survey (1990-2007). In cases where the USFWS has traditionally not recorded observations to the species level, estimates are provided only for multiple species groupings (i.e., scoters, mergansers, Goldeneyes, scaup). As soon as possible, we intend to produce species specific estimates based solely on CWS plot survey data for: surf scoter, black scoter hooded merganser, common merganser, red- breasted merganser, common golden eye, Barrow’s golden eye, and greater and lesser scaup. Analytical methods applied to eastern survey area data and results will be presented in greater detail in the 2007 Waterfowl Status Report. We anticipate additional refinements to composite estimates for the eastern survey area in the coming years as the USFWS and CWS work toward a final integrated
survey design and analytical approach. Population estimates for all species were similar to last year and to the 1990-2006 averages. The exceptions were American black ducks (539,000 ducks, +16%) and ring-necked ducks (617,000 ducks, +20%), which increased over the 1990-2006 averages.

Enjoy.

[chad belding]

Thank you Rick. This has to get everyone fired up for the season. Hopefully Mother Nature cooperates and brings the migrators. Can't wait!

Good Hunting!

[portahunter]

Definately hope mother nature cooperates for once. She's dealt us some harsh blows here on the upper Texas coast the last few years. Things are looking the best the have in 15 years, but that could change overnight.

[Wayne Radcliffe]

I hope we get some cold weather this year so we can get some ducks here.

[Bill Cooksey]

You can see the complete report on our homepage. www.averyoutdoors.com

Bill

[compass]

Thank you, Mr. Frisch:

That is great community service! Looks encouraging, even for divers. Now if we can get the CA fish and game to read it...